The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism Index for January 2026, reporting a slight decline of 0.2 points to 99.3. Despite this drop, the index remains above its 52-year average of 98.
Among the ten components that make up the Optimism Index, three saw increases while seven declined. The most notable change was in expected real sales volume, which increased by six points. The Uncertainty Index rose by seven points to 91, driven primarily by more business owners expressing doubt about whether it is a good time to expand.
“While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales.”
NFIB State Director Michael Smith commented on the mood among Wyoming business owners: “The optimism index remains stable, but small business owners remain cautious about the future and whether it’s a good time to expand their operations. Wyoming lawmakers have an opportunity this session to deliver commonsense reforms that promote a more predictable business environment for Main Street.”
A new feature in this report is the NFIB Small Business Employment Index, which consolidates several jobs-related questions into a single measure. For January, this index stood at 101.6—about 1.5 points above its historical average—indicating a balanced labor market.
Key findings from the survey include:
– Thirteen percent of respondents identified insurance costs or availability as their top concern, up four points from December and reaching levels last seen in December 2018.
– Sixty percent reported making capital outlays in the past six months—the highest rate since November 2023—with most spending directed toward new equipment.
– A net negative six percent reported paying higher interest rates on recent loans, suggesting some improvement in credit conditions for small borrowers.
– Sixteen percent cited labor quality as their main issue, down three points from December and continuing a three-month decline.
– The share expecting higher real sales volumes over the next quarter rose six points to a net sixteen percent (seasonally adjusted).
– Inventory gains were reported by a net three percent of owners—the highest since January 2023.
– Supply chain disruptions affected sixty-two percent of businesses in some way; however, reports of moderate impact declined while those seeing no impact increased slightly.
– The percentage raising average selling prices dropped four points but remained well above historic norms at twenty-six percent (seasonally adjusted), indicating ongoing inflationary pressures.
– Fourteen percent rated their business health as excellent (up five points), with fewer describing it as fair compared to December.
Employment challenges persist: thirty-one percent had job openings they could not fill—above the historical average—and eighty-eight percent hiring or trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants.
Capital expenditures reached recent highs; forty-four percent invested in new equipment and smaller shares improved facilities or acquired vehicles and property. However, fewer plan such investments over the next six months.
Loan access appears slightly easier; only three percent found their last loan harder to get than before—a decrease from December figures—and twenty-five percent borrow regularly.
Regarding profit trends among those reporting lower profits: thirty-four percent blamed weaker sales and fourteen cited seasonal changes; among those with higher profits: fifty-eight credited increased sales volume.
Taxes topped concerns for eighteen percent of respondents; labor quality fell back as an issue while government regulations edged up slightly.
The survey data was collected randomly from NFIB members during January 2026 and continues a long-running monthly series that began in 1986.