Small business optimism continued to improve at the end of 2025, according to the latest data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased by 0.5 points in December, reaching 99.5, which remains above its 52-year average.
The rise in optimism was largely attributed to more owners expecting better business conditions. The Uncertainty Index also declined by seven points from November to 84, marking its lowest level since June 2024.
“2025 ended with a further increase in small business optimism,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While Main Street business owners remain concerned about taxes, they anticipate favorable economic conditions in 2026 due to waning cost pressures, easing labor challenges, and an increase in capital investments.”
Michael Smith, NFIB State Director for Wyoming, commented on the state’s outlook: “Wyoming’s small business owners closed out 2025 optimistic and hopeful for better business conditions in 2026. NFIB will continue to work with lawmakers to ensure family-owned businesses can create jobs, expand their operations, and thrive.”
NFIB also announced a new episode of its podcast “Small Business by the Numbers,” where Holly Wade and Peter Hansen discuss economic trends affecting small businesses nationwide.
Key findings from the December survey showed that taxes have become a growing concern for small business owners. Twenty percent identified taxes as their top issue—an increase of six percentage points from November and the highest reading since May 2021.
In terms of pricing trends, both actual and planned price increases fell compared to November. The net percentage of owners raising average selling prices dropped four points to a seasonally adjusted net 30%. Plans for future price hikes also declined slightly.
Interest rates presented some relief; fewer owners reported paying higher rates on recent loans compared to previous months. The net percentage reporting higher interest rates was negative three percent—the lowest since January 2021.
Owners’ expectations for improved business conditions rose nine points from November—a notable contributor to the overall increase in optimism and marking the first such rise since July.
When evaluating their businesses’ health, nine percent rated it excellent while most described it as good or fair. Only three percent rated it poor.
Inventory gains were reported at a net negative one percent—the best result this year—while reports of supply chain disruptions remained unchanged from November at sixty-four percent. However, there was a shift from significant impacts toward more moderate or mild effects among those affected.
Labor market issues persisted; thirty-three percent reported job openings they could not fill—unchanged from November but still above historical averages. Among those hiring or trying to hire, ninety-one percent cited few or no qualified applicants. Seventeen percent plan to create new jobs over the next quarter.
Capital spending activity increased slightly; fifty-six percent made capital outlays over the last six months with spending directed mainly toward equipment, vehicles, facility improvements, fixtures or furniture, and property expansion.
Sales figures remained subdued: a net negative eight percent reported higher nominal sales over the past three months—still below historic averages—and expectations for real sales volumes declined by five points.
Inflation concerns lessened somewhat; twelve percent cited inflation as their main problem (down three points), while government regulations became less pressing for seven percent (down three points).
Other challenges included insurance costs (nine percent), financing difficulties (three percent), and competition from large businesses (six percent).
The NFIB has been collecting data on small business economic trends through quarterly surveys since late 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly selected from NFIB’s membership base. The December report is based on responses collected during that month and released on the second Tuesday of January each year.
