The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported on Feb. 11 that its Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.3 points in January to 102.8, marking the third consecutive month above the long-term average of 98. At the same time, the Uncertainty Index increased by 14 points to reach 100, which is among the highest levels recorded.
The findings highlight growing concerns among small business owners about future economic conditions, even as overall optimism remains above historical averages. The rise in uncertainty comes amid ongoing challenges such as labor shortages and inflationary pressures.
“Overall, small business owners remain optimistic regarding future business conditions, but uncertainty is on the rise,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Hiring challenges continue to frustrate Main Street owners as they struggle to find qualified workers to fill their many open positions. Meanwhile, fewer plan capital investments as they prepare for the months ahead.”
Although state-specific data was not available, NFIB State Director Michael Smith called on lawmakers to focus on supporting small businesses. “While our small business owners are hopeful future business conditions will improve, the ongoing labor shortage and inflationary pressures are fueling uncertainty. Our family-owned businesses want to create jobs, expand their operations, and invest in our communities, but these challenges are making them think twice. NFIB will continue to work with lawmakers to make it easier to do business here in Wyoming,” Smith said.
Key findings from the report include a decline in expectations for economic improvement and a decrease in planned capital outlays over the next six months. Eighteen percent of owners cited inflation as their most important problem—matching labor quality—and both issues were at their lowest level since November 2021. Thirty-five percent of owners reported job openings they could not fill, unchanged from December; among those hiring or trying to hire, most reported few or no qualified applicants.
Other indicators showed mixed results: more than half of respondents made capital expenditures recently, but fewer plan new investments soon; profit trends remained negative overall; and only a small percentage reported difficulty obtaining loans or higher borrowing costs compared with previous periods.
The NFIB Research Center has been collecting data on small business economic trends since 1973 through quarterly surveys and monthly surveys since 1986. The latest survey was conducted in January 2025.
