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Thursday, April 3, 2025

Small business optimism reaches six-year high according to latest NFIB survey

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Michael Smith Director | NFIB Wyoming

Michael Smith Director | NFIB Wyoming

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has experienced a notable increase, rising by 3.4 points in December to reach 105.1. This marks the second consecutive month where the index remains above the 51-year average of 98, reaching its highest level since October 2018. The index consists of ten components, of which seven increased, two decreased, and one remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index saw a decline of 12 points in December, settling at 86.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg commented on this trend: “Optimism on Main Street continues to grow with the improved economic outlook following the election.” He further noted that small business owners are feeling more certain and hopeful about the economic agenda of the new administration.

Michael Smith, NFIB State Director, highlighted an opportunity for lawmakers in Cheyenne as they commence their legislative session. Smith emphasized prioritizing reforms that support small businesses and stimulate economic growth: “They can deliver real results to strengthen Wyoming’s economy by cutting taxes, reducing red-tape, and bolstering our state’s workforce.”

Key findings from the survey include several optimistic indicators:

- A net percent of owners expecting economic improvement rose significantly by 16 points from November.

- The percentage of small business owners considering it a good time to expand increased six points.

- Expectations for higher real sales volumes also grew by eight points.

Additionally, a net six percent of owners plan inventory investment in upcoming months—the highest reading since December 2021—while compensation reports show a slight decrease.

Challenges remain despite these positive trends. Inflation remains a significant concern for twenty percent of business owners as they navigate higher input and labor costs. Job openings also present difficulties; thirty-five percent reported unfilled positions due to few or no qualified applicants.

The survey indicates that fifty-six percent of owners have made capital outlays recently with plans for future investments slightly declining. Furthermore, while nominal sales reports remained stable compared to November figures, some businesses continue to face profit challenges due to various factors such as weaker sales and rising material costs.

The NFIB Research Center has been collecting data through quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. These insights provide valuable information on small business economic trends across different sectors within the United States.

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